Abstract
Sugarcane is a major crop produced in many tropical countries including Mexico and has been the basis of a well-established agroindustry. However, the variation in market prices and health concerns over the consumption of sugar are challenging the economics and sustainability of sugarcane growers and mills. This paper presents a techno-economic assessment of using existing production capacity of sugarcane in Mexico and the correspondent Mexican sugarcane mills for producing ethanol as gasoline oxygenate, in comparison to the export of excess sugar production. Using the most recent statistics, we found out that the bioethanol potential is of 849,260,499 L/year which can cover for 100% of the premium and magna gasoline demand in metropolitan area (MA) and 48% of premium gasoline in rest of the country areas (RoCAs) at 5.8% w/v blending (2.7% O2 w/v). This can be done by diverting the 20% sugar production excess to ethanol with the benefit of a higher gross netback of 308.3 USD/ton of sugarcane in comparison to 222.5 USD/ton of sugarcane when it is exported. Furthermore, a minimum ethanol-selling price (MESP) of 0.5211 USD/L was estimated, showing that ethanol might be competitive against methyl tert-butyl ether (0.50 USD/L FOB Gulf price) as gasoline oxygenate agent. Decarbonizing gasoline in Mexico through the use of ethanol might allow the abatement of 5,766.8 kg CO2/day when 20% sugar is used. Concerning the underconstruction Dos Bocas refinery in Tabasco State, southern Mexico, ethanol blend at 5.8% in gasolines might but also contribute to the abatement of 6.1% of CO2 emissions and the required sugarcane was estimated at 1 million tons per year. All these indicate that sugarcane has a great potential as a feedstock to produce first-generation ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate agent in Mexico.
Highlights
The use of ethanol as oxygenate agent in gasolines is currently worldwide spread but at different penetration rates in national and subnational economies
Mexico is self-sufficient in sugar production according to consumption patterns, and around 1–2 million tons (Mtons) per zafra is yearly exported, mainly to the United States
We observed a steady diminution of sugar to national market depending on sugar to exports, but molasses production remains the same since all sugarcane juice is processed into standard sugar and the latter
Summary
The use of ethanol as oxygenate agent in gasolines is currently worldwide spread but at different penetration rates in national and subnational economies. Distilleries and sugar mills are eager to diversify their products and ethanol might have its opportunity for steady production and blending with gasolines, among other technological options Such sugar mills already use sugarcane bagasse in their energy-generation processes in order to diminish fossil fuel consumption, CO2 emissions, and OPEX and as an energy-transition programme where efficiency of steam and power generation is still under current study and development (Amezcua-Allieri et al, 2019). We have simulated the potential production of sugar, molasses, and ethanol from sugar juice using 1st generation technology and techno-economic analysis were done according to the scenarios (1) sugar to exports against (2) sugar to ethanol. The ethanol coverage was calculated in kg ethanol per liter of gasoline to obtain 2.7% w/v of oxygen, i.e., 5.8% w/v ethanol according to current Mexican standard (NOM-016-Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE), 2016)
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