Is South Asia an Optimum Currency Area?

Abstract

We assess whether the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation is an Optimum Currency Area by analyzing the symmetry of structural shocks. The result shows that SAARC countries experience asymmetric patterns of shocks, which implies the region is not yet ready for a common currency. However, we also find the increased number of positive correlation such as GDP growth, inflation, exchange rates movements and supply shocks compared to the results in the previous studies. Thus, macroeconomic convergence is ongoing among the countries, which can underpin the basis for greater monetary cooperation.