Is Road Traffic Fatalities Affected by Economic Growth and Urbanization Development

Abstract

Number of vehicles registered and population growth are predictors for traffic injuries and fatalities. Qatar has witnessed during the last two decades considerable increase both in terms of population growth and vehicle registration. Ever since 1940s many researchers have tried to define a model that could be implemented to predict road traffic fatalities anywhere in the world. To this date there is no universal model that could accurately predict traffic fatalities in any country due to the existence of difference in environmental and infrastructures. The objective of this paper was to estimate the road traffic fatalities using regression analyses formula and compare the results with Smeed's equation for estimating fatalities. The study also aimed to examine the relationship between economic growth and traffic fatalities. We have used the data on Gross Domestic Product, vehicles, population and fatalities during the period from 1990 to 2006 of the State of Qatar and analysed the data for fatalities estimate using both the equations of regression and Smeed to find the error. The results of this study show that Smeed's formula leads to a remarkably higher estimation of road traffic fatalities in Qatar than the estimate fatality by regression. The fatality estimate has been consistently rising over the past two decades. The figure shows that there is a positive association between the economic growth and traffic fatalities. In conclusion, the current study has shown that the regression analysis estimate gives better and reliable road traffic fatalities than Smeed's fatality estimation in Qatar. In Qatar, it appeared that GDP growth is associated with a rise in traffic deaths.