Is Rapid Fertility Decline Possible? Lessons from Asia and Emerging Countries

Abstract

Asia and Africa diverged in their demographic and economic profiles in the last half-century. Asia’s, especially East Asia’s, more rapid demographic transitions and economic growth are seen as the modern examples of a virtuous cycle of demographic change and economic development. General theories of fertility transition and the core lessons from Asia’s dual transformations suggest that further rapid fertility decline in Africa is very likely, as it has already begun in parts of the African continent. To achieve such further rapid decline in more countries, four key requirem ents need be met: further improvement in infant/child and maternal health, education expansion, the creation of employment opportunities, and state-sponsored family planning programs. All four factors help to explain the rapid fertility transition in Asia and are relevant to Africa. In comparison to East Asia, where national populations are much more homogeneous culturally and ethnically than in most African countries, Africa faces greater challenges in achieving these four core conditions in part because of its unique historical and institutional legacies.