Is Putin's Regime Less Vulnerable than Monarchist Russia in 1916 or the Soviet Union in 1990?

Abstract

Former president Vladimir Putin still appears to dominate an unassailable regime from the position of prime minister. However, parallels with imperial Russia shortly before the tsar's overthrow, and with its Soviet successor in the year before the union collapsed, suggest that the security of the regime should not be taken for granted. The failure of ‘experts’ to identify the weakness of the earlier regimes should teach us to be prepared for the unexpected. The parallels between tsarist Russia and the mature Soviet Union are strong, and Putin has publicly shown his appreciation of both previous regimes. In some respects, Putin's regime is close to its tsarist predecessor, and in some the parallels with the Soviet case are compelling; but the wealth of oil and gas appeared to give Putin's Russia a measure of invulnerability that neither earlier regime enjoyed. Yet technological disasters, the possible limits to the Russian nation's legendary patience, the expressed apprehensions on the part of the intelligentsia, and the shock of the global economic crisis of the autumn of 2008, place the regime's supposed invulnerability in a different light. In particular, it lacks a clear and inspiring ideology that could be used to unite the population round the regime. The sudden demise of the regime is not inevitable, but history teaches us not to be surprised by the unforeseen.