Is Productivity Growth Too Strong For Our Own Good?

Abstract

Productivity growth and improvement in a nation's standard of living are widely thought to go hand in hand. During the past 15 years, however, the gap between productivity growth and growth of living standards has widened, igniting a debate about whether a larger share of the benefits from productivity gains has gone to capital rather than labor. The first phase of our study characterizes U.S. productivity growth for the period 1948–2011. Our statistical analysis found that productivity growth did not follow one particular pattern over time, and we therefore doubt that it would follow one pattern (either a higher or lower growth rate) in the near future. Our analysis concludes that the “productivity resurgence” era of 1996:Q1 to 2011:Q4 is associated with lower growth rates of real per capita income, employment, and consumer confidence relative to productivity. That may validate the “savage cost-cutting” and “polarization” hypotheses. The stable and higher growth rates of corporate profits and the S&P 500 index indicate that capital and higher skilled workers may have gained benefits from productivity growth over time. A simultaneous rise in food stamp recipients and income share of the top 0.01 percent during the post-mid-1990s era suggest that the distribution of the stronger productivity growth gains is asymmetric.