Is palladium price in bubble?

Abstract

This paper examines whether the palladium (PAL) prices show multiple bubbles by using the Generalized Supremum ADF test for the period 1994:01–2020:01. It is regarded as a pertinent procedure to observe the emergence and termination of multiple bubbles. The results show the emergence of four bubbles for the periods 1997–1998, 1999–2001, 2011 and 2019–2020. Therefore, PAL prices deviate from its fundamental value during 1994–2020 four times. This indicates that PAL prices include fundamental and bubble elements. The emergence and termination of bubbles are generally related to particular events. The first price bubble was led by the switchover of the automakers from the platinum to PAL and supply interruption by Russia. The second PAL price bubble took place due to the supply disruption by Russia, demand increase due to technology boom and usage of PAL as collateral against the international loans. Geopolitical tension rising from the largest producer of PAL, from Russia and South Africa, leads to the next PAL prices bubble. Finally, the main driver of the last bubble includes supply deficit, low production, and tight environmental regulations. The appropriate policies required to implement to reduce tragic results when the price bubbles burst. Moreover, the causes and effects can be scrutinized by considering the time period and dates of PAL price bubbles and measures can be taken to prevent the bubbles.