Abstract
Does optimization systematically lead to solutions that appear better than they actually turn out to be when implemented? The answer can be yes if there are errors in estimating objective function coefficients. Even if such errors are unbiased, the calculated value of the objective function for the optimal solution will, in an expected value sense, overstate that solution's true performance. This presupposes that errors in the constraint set are relatively unimportant. The existence of such a bias is shown by proof; Monte Carlo simulations of two realistic water resources optimization problems show its significance for water planners. The most important implication is that the estimated net benefits of model solutions may be exaggerated compared to existing water systems, whose performance is generally known with more accuracy.
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