Is oil discovery in Uganda an opportunity or a looming curse?

Abstract

Since Uganda discovered commercial oil deposits in 2006, there have been many extraction activities resulting in many social impacts. Uganda is still one of the poorest countries in the world. It does need opportunities for development if it is to escape the extreme poverty that grips it. In this PhD thesis, I discussed how the emerging oil industry in Uganda can be an opportunity if well managed, and how it will potentially lead to ‘resource curse’, ‘Dutch Disease’ and/or the ‘Nigerian Disease’ if poorly managed. I considered the implications of this for conflict and social development in Uganda. The research question explored in this PhD is: To what extent, and under which conditions, does the exploitation of natural resources lead to a resource curse? In order to answer this broad question, the emerging oil & gas industry in Uganda was examined by considering several subordinate questions: 1) What is the ‘resource curse’? 2) What are the potential benefits of resource development (particularly oil) in Uganda? 3) What are the possible negative consequences of resource development? 4) How can the possible negative consequences be better managed to reduce their likelihood of occurrence or their impact? 5) What can be done to ensure that the potential benefits of resource development are secured, and how can they be enhanced? 6) What are the significant socio-economic and political aspects (including potential for conflict) of the context (Uganda and the Great Lakes Region) and of resource development in general and oil in particular?