Is North Africa region on track to energy trilemma for enhancing economic progress? The role of population growth and energy usage

Abstract

Considering the complexity of energy systems and the uncertainties surrounding the transition path, governments must take into account not only environmental concerns but also energy security and affordability in economic progress pathways. Therefore, using population growth and energy usage as control variables, the influence of the energy trilemma index on economic progress in the North African region is explored from 1990 to 2020. Advanced econometric approaches, particularly cross-sectional dependence, and second-generation tests, are used for empirical investigation. In addition, for short-run estimates, the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation with fixed and random effects is utilized, while for estimation in the long-run, generalized least squares (GLS) estimations for a fixed and random effect, while, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are used for robustness check. Our results refer to the positive significant influence of energy trilemma and energy usage on economic progress and the negative significant influence of population growth on economic progress. In addition, a two-way causal linkage exists between energy trilemma and economic progress, while population growth and energy usage cause economic progress. This may stress policymakers to accelerate the energy transition to low-carbon energies, appropriately use the nation's human resources, and promote energy efficiency.