Abstract
On a conceptual and normative level, the debate around transformation in the context of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been rising sharply over the recent years. Yet, whether and how transformation occurs in the messy realities of policy and action, and what separates it from other forms of risk reduction, is far from clear. Jakarta appears to be the perfect example to study these questions. It is amongst the cities with the highest flood risk in the world. Its flood hazard is driven by land subsidence, soil sealing, changes in river discharge, and—increasingly—sea level rise. As all of these trends are set to continue, Jakarta’s flood hazard is expected to intensify in the future. Designing and implementing large-scale risk reduction and adaption measures therefore has been a priority of risk practitioners and policy-makers at city and national level. Against this background, the paper draws on a document analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformational from previous risk reduction approaches. The results show that the focus is clearly on engineering solutions, foremost in the Giant Sea Wall project. The project is likely to transform the city’s flood hydrology. However, it cements rather than transforms the current risk management paradigm which gravitates around the goal of controlling flood symptoms, rather than addressing their largely anthropogenic root causes. The results also show that the planned measures are heavily contested due to concerns about ecological impacts, social costs, distributional justice, public participation, and long-term effectiveness. On the outlook, the results therefore suggest that the more the flood hazard intensifies in the future, the deeper a societal debate will be needed about the desired pathway in flood risk reduction and overall development planning—particularly with regards to the accepted levels of transformation, such as partial retreat from the most flood-affected areas.
Highlights
Transformation is the new star in a series of hot terms and guiding concepts in the context of disaster risk, global environmental change and development
The paper draws on a document analysis and original empirical household survey data to review and evaluate current adaptation measures and to analyze in how far they describe a path that is transformational from previous risk reduction approaches
These findings are in line with other empirical studies which found that the opportunities for participation has been weak amongst the population in Northern Jakarta affected by formal measures of coastal protection and flood risk reduction [24]
Summary
Transformation is the new star in a series of hot terms and guiding concepts in the context of disaster risk, global environmental change and development. Given the current magnitude and an expected future increase of Jakarta’s flood risk, in combination with the limited effectiveness of the existing risk management [14,15], radical changes in the city’s risk reduction regime are necessary This need calls for fundamental transformations in the built environment and hydraulic infrastructure and in institutional patterns of risk governance. One might ask whether, from an institutional perspective, the current measures perpetuate rather than transform the deeper political economy of environmental degradation and social marginalization that drives much of Jakarta’s current flood risk Against this background, the paper aims at making a contribution to bridging the existing gap between conceptual debates and empirical analysis of transformational risk reduction and adaptation. The last section provides key conclusions and an outlook into future needs for science, policy, and action
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