Is It Time to Go Yet? Understanding Household Hurricane Evacuation Decisions from a Dynamic Perspective

Abstract

To better understand household hurricane evacuation decisions, this paper addresses a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household's evacuation decision is framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household's optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. We build a realistic multiperiod model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for our designated Gulf of Mexico region. Results from our multiperiod model are calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations are analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision is achieved. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000037. © 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.