Is it possible to predict the prognostic values of Oncotype Dx using the results of web-based mathematical prognostic value models?

Abstract

e12058 Background: The goal of the study was to determine whether the prognostic values for ER+ HER2- breast cancer can be calculated based on a test of gene expression profiles in tumors using Oncotype Dx or by entering clinicopathological factors into a web-based model. We evaluated the correlation between these results to shed light on whether the results from web-based models could serve as representative indices for Oncotype Dx. Patients: Two hundred two primary breast cancer patients whose prognostic value was evaluated using Oncotype Dx between May 2010 and October 2018 in St. Marianna University Hospital. Methods: The patients’ clinicopathological factors were extracted from their medical records. Then, the 5- and 10-year breast cancer-specific mortality rates were calculated using PREDICT (www.predict.nhs.uk/tool), while the 5–10 year distant recurrence rate was calculated using CTS5 (www.cts5-calculator.com/). The correlations with the Oncotype Dx prognostic values were evaluated by calculating the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, and JMP.ver13.0 (SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC, USA) was employed for the analysis. Results: The patients’ median age was 49. There were 78 lymph node(LN)-negative patients and 124 LN-positive patients. For the disease stages, 51 patients were stage I, 99 patients were stage IIA, 41 patients were stage IIB, and 11 patients were stage III or above. All patients of the correlation between the Oncotype Dx recurrence score (RS) and the 10-year breast cancer-specific mortality rate was r = 0.1616. The correlation of LN-Negative patients of the 10-year distant recurrence rate between Oncotype Dx and CTS5 was r = 0.1768. The correlation of LN-Positive Cases of the 5-year distant recurrence rate between Oncotype Dx and CTS5 was r = 0.3374. The correlation of these cohort between the 5-year mortality rate from Oncotype Dx and PREDICT was r = 0.4298. Conclusions: There was no correlation between the Oncotype Dx RS and prognostic values calculated from web-based models, and there was also no correlation for prognostic values of lymph node-negative cases. However, there was a correlation for prognostic values of lymph node-positive cases, but the correlation was too weak to use the results from web-based models as representative indices for Oncotype Dx.