Is it possible to predict the presence of colorectal cancer in a blood test? A probabilistic approach method.

Abstract

The assessment of the state of immunosurveillance (the ability of the organism to prevent the development of neoplasias) in the blood has prognostic implications of interest in colorectal cancer. We evaluated and quantified a possible predictive character of the disease in a blood test using a mathematical interaction index of several blood parameters. The predictive capacity of the index to detect colorectal cancer was also assessed. We performed a retrospective case-control study of a comparative analysis of the distribution of blood parameters in 266 patients with colorectal cancer and 266 healthy patients during the period from 2009 to 2013. Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed between patients with colorectal cancer and the control group in terms of platelet counts, fibrinogen, total leukocytes, neutrophils, systemic immunovigilance indexes (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio), hemoglobin, hematocrit and eosinophil levels. These differences allowed the design of a blood analytical profile that calculates the risk of colorectal cancer. This risk profile can be quantified via a mathematical formula with a probabilistic capacity to identify patients with the highest risk of the presence of colorectal cancer (area under the ROC curve = 0.85). We showed that a colorectal cancer predictive character exists in blood which can be quantified by an interaction index of several blood parameters. The design and development of interaction indexes of blood parameters constitutes an interesting research line for the development and improvement of programs for the screening of colorectal cancer.