Is It Possible to Establish an Economic Trend Correlating Territorial Assessment Indicators and Earth Observation? A Critical Analysis of the Pandemic Impact in an Italian Region

Abstract

The paper is set within the methodological framework of the Territorial Impact Assessment (TIA) process, which is an instrument designed to facilitate sustainable and cohesive policy-making choices at the European level. The article is developed within the context of a European H2020-RICE cooperative project, which utilises the STeMA (Sustainable Territorial Economic/Environmental Management Approach) TIA methodology to investigate the potential relationship between statistical economic indicators, specifically Gross Domestic Product, and related parameters (metadata), and Earth Observation (EO) data. The objective is to provide evidence of socioeconomic trends during the Coronavirus 2019 pandemic in the Lazio Region (Italy), with a particular focus on the metropolitan area of the Rome capital city Rome. In line with the pertinent European context and the scientific literature on the subject, the paper examines the potential for combining classical and Earth observation indicators to assess macroeconomic dimensions of development, specifically in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). The results of the analysis indicate the presence of certain correlations between grey data and EO information. The STeMA-TIA approach allows for the measurement and correlation of both qualitative and quantitative statistical indicators with typological functional areas (in accordance with European Commission-EC and Committee of Ministers responsible for Spatial/Regional Planning—CEMAT guidance) at the NUTS (Nomenclature des unités territoriales statistiques) 2 and 3 levels. This facilitates the territorialisation of information, enabling the indirect comparison of data with satellite data and economic trends. A time series of data was gathered and organised for the purpose of facilitating comparison between different periods, beginning with 2019 and extending to the present day. In order to measure and monitor the evolution of the selected territorial economies (the Lazio Region), a synthetic index (or composite indicator) was developed in the economic and epidemic dimensions. This index combines single values of indicators according to a specific STeMA methodology. It is important to note that there are some critical observations to be made about the impact on GDP, due to the discrepancy between the indicators in the two fields of observation.