Abstract
The local climate in cities differs from the one in rural areas, most prominently characterized by increased surface and air temperatures, known as the “(surface) urban heat island”. As climate has changed and continues to change in all areas of the world, the question arises whether the effects that are noticeable in urban areas are “homemade”, or whether some of them originate from global and regional scale climate changes. Identifying the locally induced changes of urban meteorological parameters is especially relevant for the development of adaptation and mitigation measures. This study aims to distinguish global and regional climate change signals from those induced by urban land cover. Therefore, it provides a compilation of observed and projected climate changes, as well as urban influences on important meteorological parameters. It is concluded that evidence for climate change signals is found predominantly in air temperature. The effect of urban land cover on local climate can be detected for several meteorological parameters, which are air and surface temperature, humidity, and wind. The meteorology of urban areas is a mixture of signals in which the influencing parameters cannot be isolated, but can be assessed qualitatively. Blending interactions between local effects and regional changes are likely to occur.
Highlights
As urban climate is one of the core topics within the atmospheric sciences, it needs to be set in relation to the prevailing main issue: global climate change
Based on the EURO-CORDEX multi-model ensemble—the same ensemble as used in [15] for Germany—winter temperatures are projected to increase in the Metropolitan Region of Hamburg by 1.1–3.1 K for RCP4.5 and 2.9–4.4 K for RCP8.5 for the end of the century; summer temperatures are projected to increase by 1.2–2.5 K for RCP4.5 and 2.1–4.3 K for
For Hamburg, a statistical-dynamical downscaling method (SDD) [38] has been developed. It is based on the combination of an objective weather pattern classification [47,48] and 1 km dynamical simulations conducted with the Mesoscale Transport and Fluid Model (METRAS) [49] with REgional MOdel (REMO) and Climate Local Model (CLM) projections of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario
Summary
As urban climate is one of the core topics within the atmospheric sciences, it needs to be set in relation to the prevailing main issue: global climate change. Especially high-resolution models are often set-up independent of regional climate regional climate changes to solely study the effects of urban land cover. Insights on local effects of urban areas and their magnitude compared to regional change climate change signals Answer these three questions: Can local meteorological phenomena be assigned to either general. To quantitatively describe reactions of the urban system to external and internal changes in meteorological parameters and land cover, the signals from both origins need to be distinguished This is attempted by using observed in situ and remotely sensed data as well as model results for detailed analyses of time series and data interpretation via geographic information systems (GIS), as well as atmospheric model simulations, including downscaling. The reason for this is the use of different publications in these analyses; the different impacts are mentioned, whenever they are known
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