Abstract
Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals.
Highlights
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change mitigation will depend on long-term trajectory shifts caused by economic recovery [1]
IEA [5] has predicted a major surge in CO2 emissions from the energy sector in 2021, as the world rebounds from the pandemic via accelerating rollouts of COVID-19 vaccinations in several countries and extensive fiscal responses to the economic crisis
The economy-wide recession has led to a steep decrease in oil and gas prices and a widely agreed need for governments to intervene with substantial economic stimulus [6], which could propel or undermine the energy transition, depending on future investment profiles [7]
Summary
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change mitigation will depend on long-term trajectory shifts caused by economic recovery [1]. IEA [5] has predicted a major surge in CO2 emissions from the energy sector in 2021, as the world rebounds from the pandemic via accelerating rollouts of COVID-19 vaccinations in several countries and extensive fiscal responses to the economic crisis. Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. The urgency to curb greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions and attain the Paris Agreement temperature goals is at risk of being overlooked by the need for an economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The economy-wide recession has led to a steep decrease in oil and gas prices and a widely agreed need for governments to intervene with substantial economic stimulus [6], which could propel or undermine the energy transition, depending on future investment profiles [7]
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