Is Goodwill Attritional? Survival Analysis of the M&A Goodwill of A-Share Listed Company from 2007 to 2017

Abstract

ABSTRACT The subsequent measurement of goodwill in mergers and acquisitions has been controversial for a long time in academia and practice. This article attempts to propose a new conceptual view of the “attrition” of goodwill to improve the subsequent measurement model of goodwill. In this paper, the survival analysis method is introduced into the study of goodwill impairment decision-making and the influencing factors of economic life for the first time. Through the non-parametric analysis of Kaplan-Meier survival function, Nelson-Aalen cumulative risk function and risk rate function estimation, it is found that goodwill has the characteristics of wasting: the goodwill impairment risk of M&A projects is in an inverted U-shape and the goodwill starts to be impaired in the 3rd year on average within the 95% confidence interval, and the impairment risk rate reaches the highest (up to 8%) in the fifth year, and the probability of no impairment for 10 consecutive years is about 50%. Further regression analysis based on the survival risk model shows that human factors such as the pre-acquisition valuation level of the acquirer, management motivation and external supervision distort the impairment decision.