Is Gang Violent Crime More Contagious than Non-Gang Violent Crime?

Abstract

Gangs are thought to enhance participation in violence. It is expected then that gang-related violent crimes trigger additional crimes in a contagious manner, above and beyond what is typical for non-gang violent crime. This paper uses a multivariate self-exciting point process model to estimate the extent of contagious spread of violent crime for both gang-related and non-gang aggravated assaults and homicides in recent data from Los Angeles. The degree of contagious cross-triggering between gang-related and non-gang violent crime is also estimated. Gang-related violence triggers twice as many offspring events as non-gang violence and there is little or no cross-triggering. Gang-related offspring events are significantly more lethal than non-gang offspring events, but no more lethal than non-contagious background gang crimes. Contagious spread of gang-related violent crime is different from contagion in non-gang violence. The results support crime prevention policies that target the disruption of gang retaliations.