Is further research on adult pneumococcal vaccine uptake improvement programs worthwhile? Α value of information analysis

Abstract

BackgroundPneumococcal vaccination policy for US adults is evolving, but previous research has shown that programs to increase vaccine uptake are economically favorable, despite parameter uncertainty. Using value of information (VOI) analysis and prior analyses, we examine the value of further research on vaccine uptake program parameters. MethodsIn US 50–64-year-olds, current vaccine recommendations with and without an uptake program were analyzed. In older adults, current recommendations and an alternative strategy (polysaccharide vaccine for all, adding conjugate vaccine only for the immunocompromised) with and without uptake programs were examined. Uptake program parameters were derived from a clinical trial (absolute uptake increase 12.3% [range 0–25%], per-person cost $1.78 [range $0.70–$2.26]), with other parameters obtained from US databases. VOI analyses incorporated probabilistic sensitivity analysis outputs into R-based regression techniques. ResultsIn 50–64-year-olds, an uptake program cost $54,900/QALY gained compared to no uptake program. For ages ≥65, the program cost $287,000/QALY gained with the alternative strategy and $765,000/QALY with current recommendations. In younger adults, population-level expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was $59.7 million at $50,000/QALY gained and $2.8 million at $100,000/QALY gained. In older adults, EVPI values ranged from ~$1 million to $34.5 million at $100,000 and $200,000/QALY thresholds. The population expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) for combined uptake program cost and uptake improvement parameters in the younger population was $368,700 at $50,000/QALY and $43,900 at $100,000/QALY gained thresholds. In older adults, population EVPPI for vaccine uptake program parameters was $0 at both thresholds, reaching a maximum value of $445,000 at a $225,000/QALY threshold. Other model parameters comprised larger components of the global EVPI. ConclusionVOI results do not support further research on pneumococcal vaccine uptake programs in adults at commonly cited US cost-effectiveness benchmarks. Further research to reduce uncertainty in other aspects of adult pneumococcal vaccination is justifiable.