Is Foreign Exchange Risk Priced in the Japanese Stock Market?

Abstract

The exchange rate is an important variable that affects international competitiveness and performance of Japanese firms. We use an unconditional and a conditional multi-factor asset pricing model to examine whether exchange risk is recognized and priced in the Japanese stock market. The results indicate that the exchange risk is generally priced in Japan. More specifically, we provide evidence, in the unconditional model, that the exchange risk is priced in both weak and strong yen periods, when the bilateral yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate measure is used. The results are more mixed when the trade-weighted exchange rate is used. For the conditional model, the exchange risk is priced regardless of the exchange rate measure used. The combined evidence from the two models suggests an interesting observation about the role of the secular exchange rate trend in shaping the perception of exchange risk in the Japanese capital markets.