Abstract
In this study, we investigate how far away and for how long past flooding affected single-family housing values in Gyeonggi, South Korea. In order to empirically explore the geographic and temporal extent of the effects, we adopt two analytical methods: random-intercept multilevel modeling and Mahalanobis-metric matching modeling. The analytical results suggest that the geographic extent of the discount effect of a flooding disaster is within 300 m from an inundated area. Market values of housing located 0–100, 100–200, and 200–300 m from inundated areas were lower by 11.0%, 7.4%, and 6.3%, respectively, than counterparts in the control group. The effect lasted only for 12 months after the disaster and then disappeared. During the first month, 1–3 months, and 3–6 months after a flood, housing units in the disaster-influenced area (within 300 m of the inundated area) were worth, on average, 57.6%, 49.2%, and 45.9% less than control units, respectively. Also, within the following 6 months, the discount effects were reduced to 33.2%. On the other hand, the results showed no statistically significant effects on market values more than 12 months after the disaster. By providing insights into how people perceive and respond to natural hazards, this research provides practical lessons for establishing sustainable disaster management and urban resilience strategies.
Highlights
Recent increases in extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rains, and landslides, have gained worldwide attention
Single-family housing units within 0–100 m, 100–200 m, and 200–300 m from the inundated areas were worth, on average, 11.0%, 7.4%, and 6.3% less than those located beyond 500 m from the inundated area, respectively, controlling for variables specified in the model
The purpose of our research is to reveal how far away and for how long the occurrence of flooding affects single-family housing values, in the case of inundation in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea
Summary
Recent increases in extreme weather events, such as heat waves, heavy rains, and landslides, have gained worldwide attention. Such natural disasters have caused social and economic loss [1,2] and casualties on a substantial scale [3,4]. Damage to real estate properties from disasters incurs costs for repair and maintenance [7,8]. Increasing numbers of people have begun to consider the history and future likelihood of disasters in a neighborhood when purchasing properties, and the real estate prices in disaster-prone areas have been volatile [9,10]. In the U.S, for example, the rate of appreciation of housing prices in safer areas was roughly 15% higher than that in areas with higher risks of natural disasters over the 10 years from 2005 to 2015 [11]
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