Is Fiscal Adjustment More Durable When The IMF is Involved?

Abstract

This paper investigates fiscal developments in 112 countries during the 1990s. It finds that while the overall fiscal balance improved in most of them, the composition of this improvement differed. In countries without IMF-supported programmes, revenues increased modestly and expenditure declined sharply, while in programme countries both post-programme revenue and expenditure declined. However, in countries with programmes that included fiscal structural conditions, the adjustment was effected primarily through sharp expenditure compression. No evidence of a statistically significant impact of IMF conditionality was found. Moreover, fiscal developments were influenced by cyclical factors and by the general stance of macroeconomic policies.