Abstract
In terms of prediction by Epstein’s integrative theory of personality, cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST), those people with experiential-intuitive cognitive style are more inclined to induce errors than the other people with analytical-rational cognitive style in the conjunction fallacy (two events that can occur together are seen as more likely than at least one of the two events). We tested this prediction in a revised Linda problem. The results revealed that rational and experiential cognitive styles do not statistically influence the propensity for committing the conjunction fallacy, which is contrary to the CEST’s predictions. Based on the assumption that the rational vs. experiential processing is a personality trait with comparatively stabile specialities, these findings preliminarily indicate that those people who are characterized by “rational thinking” are not more inclined to use Bayes’ deduction than the other people who are labeled by “intuitive thinking” or by “poor thinking.”
Highlights
Traditional assumptions about rationality presume that when people deduce, their judgment should abide by Bayes’ Rule (Morris, 1974, 1977)
Individual differences For the need for cognition (NFC) sub-scale, there were 219 participants included in the analysis and 217 included for the faith in intuition (FI) sub-scale
As five participants did not give rating for any of the items in the REI-10 and two participants only responded to the NFC sub-scale and four items of the FI sub-scale, the data for the left item could not be identified in the pre-testing data set
Summary
Traditional assumptions about rationality presume that when people deduce, their judgment should abide by Bayes’ Rule (Morris, 1974, 1977). Epstein et al (1999) found that people’s normal response to the Linda vignette from an experiential perspective results to the usually high rate of conjunction fallacy, even though a substantial number of people who know and think of the conjunction rule prefer to use the representativeness heuristic.
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