Is ecological vulnerability assessment based on the VSD model and AHP-Entropy method useful for loessial forest landscape protection and adaptative management? A case study of Ziwuling Mountain Region, China

Abstract

• Ecological vulnerability was assessed and mapped via the AHP-entropy method and VSD model. • Spatiotemporal changes existed in the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. • Apparent spatial cluster patterns of ecological vulnerability existed. • An integrated method was developed for adaptive management to dryland sustainability. Ecological vulnerability assessment is an effective tool to aid decision-makers in understanding the impact of natural and anthropogenic variables on ecosystems. Yet, we know little about incorporating ecological vulnerability into accurate decision-making for climate change adaptation and human activities governance. This study proposes a comprehensive framework to link the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) model, Analytic Hierarchy Process-Entropy method, hot spot and cluster analysis into ecological vulnerability assessment and management in the Ziwuling Mountain Region (ZMR), a typical loessial forest landscape in arid China. There were significant spatial and temporal changes in the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity index in the ZMR from 1990 to 2017. The exposure and adaptive capacity index increased from 1990 to 2017. The subareas with a high exposure value were distributed in the north and south ZMR, and the subareas with a high adaptive capacity value were distributed in the east ZMR. The ecological vulnerability declined during the study period, with the smaller value subareas allocated in the middle and south ZMR and higher value in the north and southwest. Significant spatial clustering patterns on the hot and cold spots of ecological vulnerability existed in the ZMR. The clustering subareas of hot spots on ecological vulnerability were mainly characterized by dry steppe, less precipitation, and less vegetation coverage. The subareas of cold spots of ecological vulnerability were dominated by forestry and forestry-agricultural landscapes. Some suggestions and countermeasures were put forward for adaptive management and sustainability enhancement. Our results provide integrative methods linking the VSD model, AHP-entropy method, hot spot and cluster analysis to ecological vulnerability reduction and adaptive management for dryland sustainability, especially for the forest social-ecological systems in the Chinese Loess Plateau.