Is China's international trade exacerbating urban environmental pollution?——A quasi-natural experiment based on the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express

Abstract

The level of international trade liberalization and facilitation between Chinese cities and countries along the route has increased significantly since the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express. Increased economic activity is bound to significantly affect environmental quality. However, academic empirical evidence on the effect of international trade on environmental quality is inconsistent. Moreover, there is need to further clarify the specific effect paths. Based on data from various cities in China, this study examines the direction and potential effect mechanisms of China's international trade activities on the environmental status represented by carbon dioxide using the Staggered Differences-in-Differences method, considering the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express as an entry point. The opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express promotes environmental pollution in Chinese cities; this finding still holds after a series of placebo and robustness tests. A study of the mechanism of influence between the two suggests that the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express increased environmental pollution at the city level in China by promoting industrial agglomeration and improving green technology innovation. A study based on regional heterogeneity showed that the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express insignificantly negatively affected environmental quality in eastern China but significantly increased environmental pollution in the central and western regions. Further examination of the spoke network effect of the environmental pollution effect of the CHINA RAILWAY Express revealed that the opening of the CHINA RAILWAY Express in one city significantly negatively affected the environmental quality of all cities within a distance of 200 km. Although the CHINA RAILWAY Express reduces the environmental quality of cities in China where they are opened, studies using data from 145 countries or regions worldwide show that access to the CHINA RAILWAY Express is beneficial for the improvement of environmental quality in countries and regions along the route. This study explores the environmental effects of international trade from the perspective of the CHINA RAILWAY Express, enriches the relevant studies on the relationship between the two, and proposes new perspectives and conclusions to provide new empirical evidence and policy recommendations in the context of China's planning to build a strong trade nation and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.