Is China ready for a hydrogen economy? Feasibility analysis of hydrogen energy in the Chinese transportation sector

Abstract

Hydrogen plays a crucial role in achieving deep decarbonization in the global transportation sector. This study aims to identify an efficient development strategy for hydrogen energy in China's transportation sector. We propose a market acceptance model integrated with life cycle assessment to analyze the feasibility of adopting hydrogen energy in this sector. We develop a profit-fairness optimization model to maximize the profits of the entire industrial chain, ensuring a fair distribution across upstream, midstream, and downstream components. The study finds that hydrogen energy is currently not feasible in China's transportation sector, with consumer preference close to zero. With the anticipated decrease in the cost of future hydrogen applications, achieving suitable development of the industrial chain requires optimal profitability: 39.44 % in production, storage, and delivery industries, and 11.14 % in the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturing industry in our case. Recommended future marketing strategies include increasing the profitability of production, storage, and delivery industries through guaranteed market-acceptable prices. Additionally, adopting a thin margin strategy for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturing industries and prioritizing subsidies.