Is China forest landscape restoration (FLR) worth it? A cost-benefit analysis and non-equilibrium ecological view

Abstract

Forest Landscape Restoration (FLR) is an important way to address the problems of climate change and land desertification. However, there has been significant controversy about the high cost of restoration and whether it is economically feasible. Most cost-benefit analyses of ecological restoration plans have focused on a single ecosystem, without considering the complexity and relevance of the ecosystem. These studies have also not considered the large number of potential important benefits and real opportunity costs, creating the possibility of bias in the cost-benefit analysis. This study applies theoretical analysis tools from non-equilibrium ecology, combining a land system change model and economic analysis to conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of China's FLR program. The research results show that: (1) The benefits of China's implementation of the FLR policy exceed the costs, with positive net benefits. (2) After fully considering the cost of FLR, including the true opportunity cost, the net benefit of forest landscape restoration in China is between 60 trillion yuan and 110 trillion yuan. (3) Different types of commitment goals impact the success of the recovery plan. Specifically, quantifiable targets better support successful FLR implementation. The article concludes that it is worthwhile to implement forest landscape restoration in China, although the profit margin of the ecological plan is smaller than generally thought. The results provide a scientific basis for the government to formulate FLR policies and other ecological restoration plans.