Abstract
This paper analyses seven metropolitan regions that are all experiencing rapid motorisation and are perhaps appearing to capitulate to the automobile. Through 20 years of changes, evidenced in systematic data from the mid-1990s, a different perspective is found. None of the urban regions appear near to or even capable of becoming automobile cities. Physical limits are already being reached that make higher levels of private motorised mobility very problematic if transport systems are to remain functional and the cities livable. These limits appear already to be reversing the decline in non-motorised modes and creating an upturn in transit systems, especially urban rail. That these cities have been able to either hold their own, or somewhat increase their share of total motorised mobility by transit over a 20-year period, is some indication that they are ‘hitting mobility walls’ much sooner in the motorisation path than cities in North America and Australia, which grew up with and were designed around the spatial needs of cars. Like many cities in the developed world that have shown a decoupling of car use and total passenger mobility from GDP growth from 1995 to 2005, there is now evidence that this is happening in less wealthy cities. This is important because it assists global and local goals for reduced CO2 from passenger transport, while allowing for economic progress. Such evidence suggests that automobile dependence is not an irresistible force in emerging economies.
Highlights
Automobile Dependence and Its Sustainability ContextOne of the many problems confronting all cities is passenger transport with its attendant social, economic, environmental, and resource sustainability problems, especially those related to dependence on the automobile and its widespread impacts
This means we must ask if it is still a NMM city or has it evolved into a Transit City? With 55% of daily trips by NMM, on this single factor it still has clear NMM credentials and is much better than the Transit Cities
From available evidence, Beijing probably moved out of the NMM cluster and into the Transit City cluster, or alternatively, like Shanghai, it might fit into a new cluster (Emerging Transit Cities)
Summary
One of the many problems confronting all cities is passenger transport with its attendant social, economic, environmental, and resource sustainability problems, especially those related to dependence on the automobile and its widespread impacts. Cities in emerging economies in Latin America, Asia, and some parts of Eastern Europe have a reputation for rapid motorisation, as evidenced by often chronic congestion and air pollution, such as reported in Beijing and São Paulo Based on such visible and overwhelming evidence, clearly cars and motorcycles are becoming more important in the mobility patterns of such cities. Paul Barter [18,19], on the other hand, has provided a detailed, empirically-based study of East and South East Asian cities, which suggests a range of urban mobility transition opportunities, which can result in different “end states” He considers that rather than automobile dependence being an irresistible force in emerging economies, the evolution of their mobility patterns will depend greatly on the policy and transport investment decisions that they make. Are there any built-in limitations in such cities in the development of automobile dependence? What can such cities do to minimise automobile dependence?
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