Is aboriginal fertility on the decline?

Abstract

This paper examines if there has been sustained Aboriginal fertility decline since the mid-1980s, as expected in previous studies (Gray 1983, 1990; Jain 1989), by analysing fertility information obtained from the 1994 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey, birth registrations and midwives’ collections data by states. Although two studies (Gray and Tesfaghiorghis 1993:87–90; Dugbaza 1994) refuted this expectation, the results are questionable because of the unreliability of the data on which the estimates were based and the lack of fertility information. This study has produced more reliable age patterns of fertility at the national and state levels. The paper also examines the definition of Aboriginality and associated measurement problems, which are central to an understanding of Aboriginal demography.