Is a 15-Minute City Within Reach? Measuring Multimodal Accessibility and Carbon Footprint in 12 Major American Cities

Abstract

Enhanced efforts in the transportation sector should be implemented to mitigate the adverse effects of CO2 emissions resulting from zoning-based planning paradigms. The concept of a 15-minute city, emphasizing proximity-based planning, holds promise in reducing unnecessary travel and progressing towards carbon neutrality. However, a critical research question remains inadequately explored: to what extent is the 15-minute city concept feasible for American cities? This paper presents a comprehensive framework to evaluate the 15-minute city concept using SafeGraph Point of Interest (POI) check-in data across 12 major American cities. Our findings suggest a prevailing reliance on cars among residents due to the spatial distribution of essential activities beyond convenient walking, cycling, and public transit distances. Nevertheless, there exists significant promise for realizing the 15-minute city vision, given that most residents' daily activities can be accommodated within a 15-minute radius by low-emission modes transportation modes. When comparing cities, it appears that achieving a 15-minute walking city is more feasible for metropolises like New York City, San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago, while proving to be challenging for cities such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix. In examing inter-group comparisons, neighborhoods with higher proportion of White residents and higher median incomes tend to have more accessible POIs, with a substantial percentage of activities concentrated within a 15-minute radius. This demographic also shows a greater propensity to fulfill daily activities through walking, cycling, or public transit trips within a 15-minute travel time, thus presenting a greater potential in CO2 reduction compared to African Americans. This study can offer policymakers insight into how far American cities are away from the 15-minute city concept. It also highlights the potential CO2 emissions reductions that could be achieved through successful implementation.