Irrigation expansion shows potential for increased maize yield and reduced nitrogen leaching in the Midwest US

Abstract

CONTEXTYield gaps in Midwest US rainfed maize (Zea mays L.) are likely to continue to increase as the frequency of extreme weather events associated with future climate change increase (i.e., high temperatures, precipitation variability). One solution to closing this gap is the expansion of irrigation in regions that currently do not utilize this practice. While irrigation expansion has the potential to increase maize yields and crop productivity, there is also the potential to see improvement in nitrogen loss. However, it remains unclear at what point irrigation should be triggered (i.e., plant available water content (AWC) thresholds) to obtain a balance between crop productivity and environmental improvements. OBJECTIVEThe objective of this study is to assess the effects of irrigation management on maize yield, nitrogen leaching, and water use efficiency under the expansion of irrigation across the entire Midwest US and to determine the optimal plant AWC threshold to trigger irrigation for achieving a substantial increase in maize yield and reduction in nitrogen leaching while using the minimal amount of required irrigation. METHODSWe use an agroecosystem model, Agro-IBIS, to simulate both rainfed and irrigated maize production and nitrogen leaching under likely future climate conditions (i.e., wet-warm, dry-warm). To determine the optimal plant AWC threshold for irrigation, irrigation scenarios were conducted for a range of plant AWC thresholds (0.2 to 0.8) across the entire Midwest US. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur results show that Midwest US regions that do not currently utilize irrigation could experience an 11–37% increase in maize yield and a 12–32% decrease in nitrogen leaching when irrigation (39.0 to 96.8 mm yr−1) is triggered at the lower end of the plant AWC threshold (e.g., 0.3). Maize grown under dry-warm and wet-warm climate conditions will likely experience increased yields and reduced nitrogen loss with minimal irrigation. While these findings suggest that the expansion of irrigation could help close yield gaps while improving other ecosystem services, future work should focus on simulating these conditions under a wider range of precipitation extremes and fertilizer management to better understand the potential interactions under a changing climate. SIGNIFICANCEThis study outlines the optimal plant AWC threshold for irrigation to maximize maize yields in the Midwest while minimizing nitrogen loss and can provide valuable insights for making informed decisions about landscape management under future conditions.