Irrigated agriculture and human development: a county-level analysis 1980–2010

Abstract

As policy is developed to manage the declining Ogallala Aquifer, it is imperative to understand and manage the relationship between irrigated agriculture and human well-being in the High Plains region. We use a path analysis model to estimate the impact of the gallons of groundwater extracted for agricultural use and the percentage of irrigated farmland on Human Development Index scores for 234 High Plains counties between 1980 and 2010. Controlling for population, state, and the previous decade’s Human Development Index score, we find that the prevalence of irrigated agriculture on the High Plains, as measured by the percentage of farm acres irrigated and the number of gallons of groundwater extracted, has a negligible impact on county-level human development, as measured by the Human Development Index. This suggests that policymakers may employ a range of strategies for managing irrigation withdrawals from the Ogallala Aquifer without harming the well-being of area residents.