Irrigated Agricultural Expansion Planning in Developing Countries: Resilient System Design

Abstract

A multicriteria optimization model is built to determine performance as well as operating rules of an agricultural system under future uncertainties inherent in the planning parameters. Performance of the agricultural systems is measured in terms of the economic efficiency and income redistribution criteria. The operating decisions are determined in such a way that the reduction in performance due to unpleasant surprises in the planning parameters can be minimized. The multicriteria model is used in deriving the relationship between the performance of a case study and the unpleasant changes in the planning parameters. A resiliency index in terms of the gradients of these functional relationships in a probabilistic framework is provided. Based on this resiliency index, a definition of resilient system design is reached.