Abstract
Abstract : Progress simulating equatorial spread F (ESF) in pursuit of a space-weather forecast capability is summarized. ESF is the main manifestation of space weather at low magnetic latitudes in the ionosphere and is responsible for disrupting communication, navigation, imaging, and surveillance systems important to the Air Force and other federal agencies. A 3D numerical simulation of the plasma instabilities responsible for ESF written at Cornell has been developed and upgraded under this award. Plasma number density, electric field, and neutral wind data necessary for driving the simulation have been collected in campaigns at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory conducted approximately semi-annually. The simulation code is initialized and forced using campaign data. Simulation results, specifically the plasma depletions and plumes characteristic of ESF, are compared with coherent scatter radar imagery of ESF irregularities made at Jicamarca. Such imagery is directly comparable to the 3D simulation products, offering a prediction-assessment strategy that is uniquely conducive to closure. In multiple campaign studies, the simulation was able to recover the ionospheric dynamics that unfolded in nature including the occurrence or non-occurrence of ESF
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