Irregular distribution of wind power prediction

Kun Yuan,Zhenglin Yang,Ying Wang,Kaifeng Zhang,Yaxian Zheng,Dawei Li

doi:10.1007/s40565-018-0446-9

Kun Yuan, Zhenglin Yang + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40565-018-0446-9

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Abstract

Wind power is volatile and uncertain, which makes it difficult to establish an accurate prediction model. How to quantitatively describe the distribution of wind power output is the focus of this paper. First, it is assumed that wind speed is a random variable that satisfies the normal distribution. Secondly, based on the nonlinear relationship between wind speed and wind power, the distribution model of wind power prediction is established from the viewpoint of the physical mechanism. The proposed model successfully shows the complex characteristics of the wind power prediction distribution. The results show that the distribution of wind power prediction varies significantly with the point forecast of the wind speed.

Highlights

Wind power forecast error is one of the most challenging issues of dealing with wind in power system operations
A wind speed forecasting model is primarily divided into a time series prediction model and a probability distribution forecasting model
The support vector machine model can be utilized for both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting [19]

Summary

Introduction

Wind power forecast error is one of the most challenging issues of dealing with wind in power system operations. Reference [20] statistically analyzes the wind speed in a region and fits the wind speed prediction error to the Weibull distribution. In [24], a wind power forecasting correction method considering wind speed prediction error is proposed, in which the wind speed prediction error meets the normal distribution. Empirical distribution models such as normal distribution, Laplacian distribution, beta distribution and Cauchy distribution are suitable for different scenarios. Reference [33] analyzes the relationship between wind speed forecasting and wind power prediction. This paper presents a wind power forecasting probability distribution model based on the relationship between wind speed and wind power.

Limitation of regular distribution based on statistical data

Curve of ‘‘wind speed–wind power’’

Wind power forecasting probability model

Case study

Discussions on contribution

Conclusion