Irredentism versus Secessionism: The Potential for International Conflict

Abstract

Conventional wisdom suggests that irredentist causes, advanced by sovereign states whose politically dominant ethnic groups have access to large-scale armies, are more likely to lead to international conflict than secessionist ones, which are fought by underprivileged minorities lacking adequate military resources. This article challenges this general assumption in the literature by arguing that irredentist causes initiated by underprivileged minorities are unlikely to lead to war; likewise, secessionist causes supported by resource rich states are just as likely to escalate to international conflict. This argument is supported with evidence from the Basque and Kurdish conflicts.