Iraq's Enduring Proliferation Threat

Abstract

Conclusions Despite DESERT STORM and UN weapons and trade sanctions, Iraq remains a serious proliferation and regional security threat. Baghdad has refused to comply fully with UN resolutions requiring disclosure and elimination of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) weapons, long range (greater than 150 km) ballistic missiles and related production capabilities. The evidence, including obstruction of UN inspections, indicates that Iraq is concealing and seeking to rebuild prohibited weapons and capabilities. Also, sanctions loopholes enable Iraq to maintain a dual-purpose industrial base upon which violations of UN prohibitions can build. If left unchecked, these capabilities can be expected to grow. Violations of UN Sanctions UN inspections, and revelations triggered by the defection in summer of 1995 of Iraq's chief of NBC programs, Hussein Kamel, have confirmed what many suspected: Iraq's NBC programs went well beyond what had been assessed prior to DESERT STORM or at the initiation of post-war sanctions, or admitted by Iraq in declarations to the UN. Iraq had a crash program to make its first nuclear warhead for missile delivery by April 1991. Its Biological Weapons (BW) program produced enough anthrax and botulinum toxin to kill the world's entire population. Before DESERT STORM, Iraq filled about 200 missile warheads and aerial bombs with BW agents and deployed them to missile bases and air fields. It had even capability for Chemical Weapons (CW) employment. Documents obtained by the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) indicate that Iraq contemplated strategic offensive use of CW (and probably BW) through surprise attack. While Iraq's April 1991 goal for a missile deliverable nuclear warhead was ambitious, some experts believe that at least a basic nuclear bomb was probably within its reach by the end of that year. Fortunately, the invasion of Kuwait and DESERT STORM occurred before Iraq completed such a weapon and Iraq apparently was deterred from using BW and CW by U.S. (and Israeli) warnings which Iraq interpreted as a threat of nuclear retaliation. Following these new disclosures, Iraq has resumed its familiar stonewalling posture by blocking or curtailing access to suspect facilities, witnesses and documents. For example, while access to a site was delayed in July, Iraqi truck convoys removed purported concrete pillars having the dimensions of SCUD missiles. Meanwhile, Iraq to claim, without substantiation, that it has destroyed unaccounted for weapons and related production materials and equipment. UNSCOM's most recent report cited the the foregoing to illustrate Iraq's organized mechanism of concealment. UNSCOM continues to believe that limited but highly significant quantities [of prohibited weapons and capabilities] may remain [in Iraq]. Among other things, Iraq has not accounted for its ackowledged production of 3 metric tons of the advanced and highly toxic VX nerve agent, nor precursor chemicals that could support production of another 400-500 metric tons of VX. Also, UNSCOM assesses that BW agent production far exceeded amounts Iraq declared and claims to have destroyed; in this connection, 17 metric tons of media for growing BW agents remain undocumented. Furthermore, the United States estimates that Iraq is hiding up to several dozen SCUD missiles. In addition, as President William Clinton has stated to Congress, Iraq is committed to rebuilding its prohibited nuclear and other prohibited weapons programs. UNSCOM has reported that Iraq maintains a well funded clandestine operation capable of acquiring super quality items such as the advanced Russian missile guidance sets obtained by Baghdad last year. In Congressional testimony, CIA Director John Deutch stated that Iraq remains a formidable nuclear proliferation problem, while noting the chilling reality that nuclear material and technologies are more accessible now than at any time in history. …