Abstract
Significance Baghdad and Erbil are currently negotiating a new budget agreement covering oil revenue and fiscal transfers, which could provide immediate relief. However, internal divisions are rising, at the same time as Ankara has launched a major assault in northern areas. Impacts Erbil and Baghdad will broaden current budget talks to include coordinated action on gas, electricity and security. The ongoing lack of a full-time oil minister (since July 2019) will undermine efficiency and ties with foreign investors. Intensifying protests could result in a heavy-handed crackdown and further narrowing of space for dissent.
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