Iraq's New Constitution: Recipe for Stability or Chaos?

Abstract

The key to Iraq's future stability and prosperity ultimately depends not on the daily struggle to improve security, but on devising a new and workable constitution. Approval of a draft Constitution in a referendum in October 2005 has not ended the debate: the Sunni Arabs in particular remain bitterly opposed to some of its provisions, especially those on federalism. Negotiations are to resume shortly on possible amendments to the Constitution, and the newly elected Council of Representatives has the daunting task of drafting the large number of laws needed to implement it. This analysis looks at the key clusters of issues which continue to divide Iraq's communities and at the prospects for enduring compromises, as well as the impact of this bold constitutional experiment on other states in the region. It concludes that overcoming the main threat to success—the stoking of sectarian tendencies by continuing violence—ultimately requires Iraq's leaders to adopt a mindset which puts the common good ahead of short-term sectarian advantage. These leaders have shown in the past their ability to make the necessary compromises to keep the political process on track and, with strong support from the international community, are likely to do so again. The new constitution can therefore provide the basis for a stable and prosperous Iraq, as well as a powerful example for others in the region.