Abstract

AbstractIran has been a critical player in the Syrian war since 2011, crafting a complex foreign policy and military strategy to preserve its Syrian ally. What have been the drivers of Iranian decision-making in this conflict? And how has Iranian strategy evolved over the course of the war? This chapter argues that the logic of deterrence has been fundamental not just for shaping the contours of Iran–Syria relations since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, but also for determining the overall trajectory of Iranian strategy in the Syrian war. The authors outline Iran’s decision-making calculus and divide the country’s strategy on Syria after the Arab Spring into four primary phases: (1) a ‘Basij’ strategy to establish local militias in Syria; (2) a regionalization strategy to incorporate transnational fighters and militias in the war effort; (3) an internationalization strategy to incorporate Russia and balance the United States; and (4) a post-ISIS deterrence strategy to balance against the United States, Turkey and Israel. Iran’s Syria strategy progressively escalated in response to the possible defeat of its ally and the deterioration of its forward deterrence capacities against the United States and Israel. Today, the potential for direct inter-state conflict is rising as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence.

Highlights

  • Even during the time of President Bill Clinton when the issue of peace between Syria and the Zionist regime was supposed to be resolved in Paris, Hafez Assad went to Paris but did not attend the morning session and was not present at the negotiation because he knew what the impact of Syria’s compromising over the steadfastness of the Resistance front against Israel was and as a result he thwarted it

  • The potential for direct interstate conflict is increasing as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence capacity

  • Escalating in response to Tehran’s sense of new threats and vulnerabilities, Iranian strategy in Syria has advanced through four stages, from a phase of localized militia formation through the regionalization and internationalization of its coalition to the current balancing strategy of the post-ISIS period

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Summary

Chapter 13

The authors outline Iran’s decision-making calculus and divide the country’s strategy on Syria after the Arab Spring into four primary phases: (1) a ‘Basij’ strategy to establish local militias in Syria; (2) a regionalization strategy to incorporate transnational fighters and militias in the war effort; (3) an internationalization strategy to incorporate Russia and balance the United States; and (4) a post-ISIS deterrence strategy to balance against the United States, Turkey and Israel. Iran’s Syria strategy progressively escalated in response to the possible defeat of its ally and the deterioration of its forward deterrence capacities against the United States and Israel. The potential for direct inter-state conflict is rising as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence

13.1 Introduction
13.2 The Logic of the Relationship
13.3 Iranians Debate Syria
13.4 The Evolution of Iranian Strategy after the Arab Spring
13.4.1 Phase 1
13.4.2 Phase 2
13.4.3 Phase 3
13.4.4 Phase 4
13.5 Conclusion
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