Iran's Interests in Afghanistan and their Implications for NATO

Abstract

The past decade has seen several lurches back and forth between discussions of cooperation and conflict between Iran and the United States and NATO in Afghanistan. In the late 1990s, amid warming relations between Iran and the United States, officials from both countries participated in the sixplus-two framework on Afghanistan, a United Nations -initiated forum for countries with interests in Afghanistan to discuss ways to solve the political and social crises caused by the civu war foUowing the Soviet withdrawal in 1989. The framework would ultimately provide cover for American and Iranian officials to meet in what was known as the Geneva contact group to discuss mutual concerns about the growing strength of the Taliban and al Qaeda in Afghanistan. FoUowing the September il terrorist attacks, an extraordinarily sympathetic Iran pledged its support to the United States and provided vital tactical guidance to coalition forces in Afghanistan during operation Enduring Freedom, clearly helping the coalition to a quick victory over the Taliban. Only weeks after Iran played a key role in forging the Bonn agreement in December 2001, then- President George W Bush included Iran in the now famous axis of evu declaration in his January 2002 state ofthe union address. The declaration condemned Iran as one ofthe world's leading state sponsors of terrorism. Despite the political faUout from the speech, Iranian and American officials continued to meet in the contact group, this time to discuss the threat posed by Saddam Hussein in Iraq. FoUowing the election of hard-line President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, the subsequent deterioration of human rights in Iran, and growing concerns about Tehran's nuclear program relations have deteriorated to lows not seen since 1979. With respect to Afghanistan, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other muitary personnel revealed evidence in 2007 that Iran has been supporting the insurgents, quite possibly with the sanction of Iran's leadership.The ambiguity of Iran's activities in Afghanistan has nevertheless done little since then to discourage hopes of involving it in a regional approach to stabuize and rebuild Afghanistan. In the last few months of the George W Bush administration and in the first few months after the inauguration of President Barack Obama, what had been a few cautious references to the potentially constructive role Iran could play in Afghanistan turned into a virtual chorus of voices calling for Iran to be engaged, aU of which highlighted common interests as the foundation for discussions. Without exaggerating their optimism for a successful engagement, numerous highranking US and NATO officials spoke ofthe need to include Iran in future strategic discussions about Afghanistan. In March 2009, Obama himself caUed for another contact group to be set up.1 However, since June 2009 the chorus has once again died down, ostensibly because of three events: failed initiatives to persuade Iran to come to the table at various international forums in which Afghanistan has been discussed; the ongoing faUout from Iran's controversial presidential elections; and continued deadlock in discussions with Iran about the nature of its nuclear program. In short, developments in Iran have, perhaps more than ever, made it a very sensitive political topic for the Obama administration. Indeed, there now appears to be a general acceptance of the observations of Hillary Mann Leverett, a former director for Iran and Persian Gulf affairs at the national security council in the George W Bush administration that discussing limited tactical issues like Afghanistan.. .must be part of a broader comprehensive strategy where everything - from US nuclear concerns to Iranian frustration with security and sanctions - is on the table.2 Recent events may have brought everyone back to earth about Iran's role in Afghanistan, but several facts make the subject worthy of continued inquiry. To be sure, as Dennis Ross has argued recently, if history tells us anything, it is that forging an effective strategy towards Iran is no easy task, and yet it has probably never been more important. …