Iranians and the Bomb: Elite Cues and Support and Opposition to the Development of Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

A 2008 poll of Iranians revealed that approximately twenty-four percent of those surveyed support the development nuclear weapons by Iran, while seventy-four percent of those surveyed support the development of exclusively peaceful nuclear capabilities. This essay develops an argument that explains why Iranians hold different views on nuclear weapons. We contend that the elite discourse on the legitimacy of nuclear weapons within a nation will play a very large role in shaping public attitudes on the development of such weapons. In post-revolution Iran, ruling elites have invoked Islam to shape the discourse on nuclear weapons, and top clerics have argued that Islam forbids the development of such weapons. Thus we would expect that acceptance or rejection of this view of nuclear weapons will be the primary factor explaining an Iranian’s support for or opposition to their development. Our regression analyses indicate that a respondent’s views on whether Islam tolerates the development of nuclear weapons explain, in large measure, the observed variation in Iranian support for developing nuclear weapons.