Iranian Military Resurgence: Scope, Motivations, and Implications for Regional Security

Abstract

Since 1989, when Hojatoleslam Rafsanjani became the President of Iran, and again in1993, when Rafsanjani was narrowly reelected for a second term, many hoped that Iranianpolitics would shift focus from the practice of radical Islam internationally, to the need foreconomic rebuilding in the wake of the Iran-Iraq war. Despite several notable and calcu-lated events, however, Iran has not reinforced this image with actions. Instead, the regimecontinues to aggressively pursue defense acquisition, conduct numerous large-scale mili-tary exercises, support terrorism, and destabilize other governments. In the short-term Irandoes not constitute a grave immediate threat, requiring instead some measure of stability togather strength. In the mid- to long-term, however, several factors could force the regime tofall back on the traditional use of its military: to keep the populace politically mobilizedand focused away from socioeconomic decay, and to validate the revolutionary govern-ment.