Iran's Crumbling Revolution

Abstract

WESTERN REPORTERS tend to describe current situation in Iran in alarmist terms, suggesting that people are near revolt, regime faces collapse, and country is prone to political upheaval. Even if these assessments are premature or extreme, relentless confrontations between reformist Majles (national assembly) and conservative Council of Guardians (which has veto power over Majles legislation and vets all candidates for elective office) augur a turbulent political future. The 1979 revolution faces a profound challenge from a new and disenchanted generation, widely known in Iran as the Third Force. For this broad swath of society born after 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's promise of ajust and free Islamic society has proven a sham. After nearly a quarter-century of theocratic rule, Iran is now by all accounts politically repressed, economically troubled, and socially restless. And ruling clerical oligarchy lacks any effective solutions for these ills. The changes wrought by this turmoil call for a new and nuanced U.S. policy toward Islamic Republic-particularly if United States goes to war against Iraq. Since high-profile inclusion of Iran in President George W. Bush's axis of evil, proposals to deal with that rogue state have run gamut from a preemptive military strike to pursuit of diplomatic engagement. Between these two extremes, suggestions have included covert action to destabilize ruling regime, assistance to internal and external opposition groups, financial aid for foreign-based Iranian media, and a call for international