Iran as a Military Threat

Abstract

Conclusions * Iran lacks the resources to acquire a modern military capable of competing with the United States. The bulk of Iranian investments have been made in ballistic missiles and naval forces. * Iran's ballistic missile capabilities provide it with a force of considerable strategic value. It can target cities throughout the Gulf, which could intimidate the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, especially if the missiles were armed with biological or chemical warheads. By its geographic position, Iran casts a looming shadow over everything that happens in the Persian Gulf, through whose waters move one-sixth of the world's oil. Iran's naval forces are likely to soon have 20 missile patrol boats and three Russian-supplied submarines, as well as modern mines (bottom mines using influence fuses appropriate for shallow Gulf waters and rocket-propelled mines suitable for the deep waters of the Strait of Hormuz). * The United States currently has sufficient military forces in the region to counter virtually any move taken by the Iranians. However, the United States should expect to take losses should a conflict develop with Iran. * There is considerable support in the GCC for the U.S. military presence as a vital deterrent to either Iraqi or Iranian aggression. If the United States is to sustain the political cooperation needed to sustain support for its military forces, Washington needs to consult actively with the GCC countries. * The potential threat posed by Iran is a concern for many in the U.S. defense establishment. Its Islamic republic is viewed as a rogue regime that is fundamentally hostile to the interests of the United States and its allies. The question, however, is not what are Iran's intentions, but what are its capabilities. * Iran's conventional weakness may increase its reliance on unconventional weapons, including its chemical and biological weapons. Targeted Arms Build-Up Much has been written recently about Iran's efforts to enhance its conventional military capabilities through the acquisition of new armaments. The problem for Iran is that it lacks the resources to acquire a modern military capable of competing with others in the region, much less with the United States. According to the December 1994 World-Wide Conventional Arms Trade (1994-2000): A Forecast and Analysis from the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Iran will acquire $7.7 billion in weapons during the period 1994-2000 (about $1.1 billion per year). This will include fighter aircraft, Scud missiles, attack boats, submarines, surface-to-air missiles, ship-to-ship missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers. By comparison, Saudi Arabia is expected to acquire $32.4 billion in weapons, Kuwait and the UAE together a total of $13 billion. Indeed, the UAE alone is expected to buy more than Iran. In fact, even these relatively modest levels of arms purchases have not been attained. Early indications are that Iran has spent considerably less than $1 billion a year on arms purchases during the past few years. Rather than spending $2 billion annually, as the Iranians intended in the late 1980s, Iranian arms imports have declined to no more than $500 million to $800 million per year. As a result, Iran has focused its acquisitions on a few selected areas. Iran has acquired some new combat aircraft, including Russian Su-24 strike aircraft and MIG-29 fighters and some Chinese F-7 fighters. Despite these purchases, however, Iran still has no more than 175 operational combat aircraft. In addition, it has added air defense equipment, including Chinese versions of the venerable SA-2 missile, as well as Russian SA-5 and SA-6 missile batteries. Improved Ballistic Missile Capabilities Iran has worked hard to enhance its ballistic missile capabilities. During the Iran-Iraq War, Iran acquired its first ballistic missiles, Scud Bs from Libya and North Korea. …