Iran and the United States: The Emerging Security Paradigm in the Middle East

Abstract

When this decade began Iran was flanked by two sworn enemies: the Taliban regime in Afghanistan on the east and Saddam Hussein in Iraq on the west. The Taliban received substantial support from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and Iraq was believed to have weapons of mass destruction. The 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war resulted in more than a million casualties, ended with no peace treaty, and left major territorial disputes unresolved. On the other side, a war between Iran and the Taliban was averted in 1998 following the Taliban’s killing of eight Iranian diplomats and a journalist. Since then, the regional security landscape and Tehran’s security outlook have dramatically changed. A few weeks after the 11 September terrorist attacks on the United States, an American-led international coalition invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban. Less than two years later, in March 2003, another US-led international coalition toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime. The removal of these two regimes and the deployment of American troops in both countries were perceived in Tehran as a “mixed blessing.” Iranian officials became concerned that their country would be America’s next target for “regime change” in the Middle East. Feeling vulnerable, Iranian leaders signaled their willingness to conduct talks with the United States on a number of issues, including their nuclear program and support for the terrorist organizations, Hezbollah and Hamas. However, the international coalitions’ failure to decisively defeat the insurgent threats and establish stable governments in Afghanistan and Iraq has altered regional security dynamics. As a result, the likelihood of another