IQLIM O‘ZGARISHI SHARTLARI CHIRCHIK HOZIRGI HAVZASI DİNAMIKASI UZOQ MUDDATLI PROGNOZ

Abstract

Assessing the impact of the past and future climatic differences on the runoff dynamics in river basins is important in view to ensure sustainable agricultural output in the future, as well as to reduce the impact of climate change on the environment. This situation requires urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, policy, economics, ecology and environment. The study assesses the impact of changing precipitation intensity on the flow dynamics of the Chirchik River based on the Global Circulation Model (GCM) for 2030, 2050 and 2070 using the delta approach method under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The study findings convincingly show changes in flow dynamics in the Chirchik River basin in the short and long term perspectives. This study will be useful information to ensure sustainable agricultural productivity and food security in the Chirchik basin in response to climate change, as well as to develop a mechanism for operational water management to protect the environment, improve the social status of society and achieve economic sustainability in the region.