IPVF's PV technology vision for 2030

Abstract

AbstractCurrent single‐junction crystalline silicon (c‐Si) solar cells are approaching their power conversion efficiency (PCE) limit. Tandem solar cells are expected to overcome such efficiency limit, with perovskite on c‐Si tandems being a promising candidate for commercialization over the next years. This work aims atdescribing the conditions that tandem cells and modules need to fulfill to successfully enter the market in 2030.We first estimate that industrial c‐Si photovoltaic modules may reach a price level of about 15 c$/W in 2030 at a PCE of 22–24%, with an expected lifetime of 30 years and an annual degradation of 0.5%. For commercial relevance, we anticipate that tandem module efficiencies need to be increased to reach around 30%, while matching lifetime and degradation rate of c‐Si modules. Provided these conditions, we find that these tandem modules could then have a cost bonus of around 5–10 c$/W compared to c‐Si modules for reaching equal levelized cost of energyvalues.