IPHEN—a real-time network for phenological monitoring and modelling in Italy

Abstract

This paper aims to describe the Italian PHEnology Network (IPHEN), a cooperative project started in 2006 with the aim of producing nationwide maps of analysis and forecast of plants phenological stages mainly used to satisfy the needs of agriculture, health and environmental care. Iphen is a data processing system composed of the following main segments (a) collection of atmospheric and phenological data, (b) processing of data with suitable phenological and geo-statistical models and (c) phenological maps of analysis and forecast. In more detail, IPHEN maps of analysis (featuring phenological stages reached at the date of processing) are produced with models based on a Normal Heat Hours approach which weighs hourly air temperature effectiveness for plant phenological progression applied to national grids of hourly temperature derived from the operational agro-meteorological network of CRA-CMA. A correction scheme based on phenological surveys provided by volunteer observers is applied to the first guess maps of analysis to obtain final maps. Forecast maps (prediction of the days of occurrence of relevant phenological stages) are produced on the basis of GFS model medium range forecasts and climatic data. Freeware IPHEN maps for grapevine, common and Arizona cypress, black elder, olive and locust trees are broadcasted weekly on the CRA-CMA website. The positive operational results of IPHEN are testified by 150 maps broadcasted during the 2011 season for the above-mentioned species. The system performances and reliability have been analysed focusing on the analysis of phenological simulation errors and on the sensitivity of phenological maps to anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. The error analysis shows that phenological models are characterized by advances/delays that justify the adoption of an observation based correction scheme. The sensitivity analysis highlights that the system is responsive to the effects of circulation blocking systems leading to phenological advances and delays.